GMAT Analytical Writing Assessment: Argument

107. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries.
“A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
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Andrew's writing (in 40 minutes...... @_@")

The memorandum recommends that the gourmet food store sell food specialties from one particular country and at the same time play the music from that country. The reason offered in support of this recommendation is based on a discovery last month that wine from a certain country sells more than that from any others when its music is played. This argument is unconvincing for the following logical fallacies.

First of all, a faulty analogy fallacy is committed because a the gourmet food store is compared with a gourmet food store. A gourmet store sells items more than just wine. A sale success in wine doesn't mean that the success will also occur in the sale of food specialties. In addition, we need to question whether the local wine store in which the discovery was made is located at the same area as the gourmet store.The effect of sell could vary from location to location. Moreover, since the discovery was made last month, the past achievment should not guarantee the future success.

Secondly, the assisstant manager fails to examine the authenticity of the discovery. Is the sale success on certain wine simply because that the music from a certain country is played? There might be some other promoting stratigies for that wine store during that period. Other causes contributed to the success should not be ignored.

Finally, the manager's claim that the profit will be increased from this means is immediately problematic. According to the business principle, good sells doesn't neccessarily mean good profit. The manager's assertion that they will be able to predict more precisely what items to be stocked, again, committ the faulty analogy fallacy since two different times are assumed without evidence to remain the same.

In conclusion, the assistant manager's recommendation is unfounded. To strengthen his recommendation, the assistant manager would have to demonstrate that the situation --the background, location and time-- for the wine store and the gourmet store is similiar and to thoroughly analyze the reason for the wine store's success.
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Sample Essay: (Some good points that i failed to mention!)

As a means of increasing profits and more accurately predicting what items should be stocked, the assistant manager of a gourmet food store proposes that only music from a particular country be played during the period food items from that country are on sale. The basis for this proposal is the discovery by a wine store that sales of wine from a country increased when music from that country was played. The manager’s proposal is questionable for several reasons.

First, the manager assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by the wine store reflects a general causal pattern. However, there is little evidence to support this assumption. While perhaps indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country. To establish a causal connection between these events it would be necessary to examine and eliminate other possible factors that might account for this phenomenon. In any case, it is highly questionable whether evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in question.

Second, the manager assumes that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is consistent with the statement that the wine store sold more French than Italian wine on days when French music was played and vice versa when Italian music was played that no net increase in sales, and thus profit, was realized by this method. For example, it is possible that on days when French music was played seven bottles of French wine were sold and three bottles of Italian (were sold) whereas the reverse was the case when Italian music was played, and that in both instances only 10 bottles were sold.
In conclusion, the manager’s recommendation is based on two dubious assumptions. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to provide additional evidence to support the claim that sales of an item are influenced by the type of music played. Additionally, the manager would have to provide evidence that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music.